Tournament Holdem: Headed for Disappointment?

With the popularity of the World Series of Poker(tm) and the World Poker Tour(tm), many people are entering these competitions looking forward to a big score. Most are doomed to a disappointing finish out of the money regardless of their talent and skills. There are a great many famous poker pros who are sent to the rail on the first day of these tournaments.

Luck has a much greater impact in a large tournament than in a typical cash game. It's simply a function of odds and percentages. The more people contending for the prize pool, the longer the odds for each participant. For the professionals, they are usually vastly out-numbered by amateurs who are notorious for their lower skill level and resulting unpredictable play. This often results in their being busted by amateur players calling with hands that a pro would lay down and sucking out. Any serious player will tell you that the real poker doesn't get played until you're near the bubble. Until then, it's a minefield.

This is not to say you should avoid multi-table tournaments. Just don't fall into the trap of accepting the fallacy that it's all skill and little luck. If you're going to win any No-Limit tournament, you will have to win more than your share of races and coin-flips.

In terms of strategy, tournaments are very different from cash games. Bluffs (especially early) are of limited value because of the size of the pot in relation to the stack sizes. Many amateur players try to bluff way too much early in a tournament because of a mis-application of pot odds. When it comes to making a bluff, pot odds are (or should be) largely irrelevant. Instead, you should be looking at the risk/reward ratio.

It's like this: If you are making a pot-sized bet on a bluff, how much will it increase your stack by if you win? How much will your stack be reduced if you lose? If your stack size is 5,000 and you bet 1000 at a 1000 pot, the numbers aren't in your favor. The potential gain is only 16.6% (5000 to 6000) while the potential loss is 20% (5000 to 4000).

For this reason you should generally try to avoid bluffing too much early on in a tournament. It usually isn't worth the risk. If someone goes all-in preflop and you have A's, by all means, call. That's altogether different than going all in on a bluff. Early in a tournament you want to identify a weaker player and get him to pay you off.

Later in the tournament, you will need to change things up a bit. As the blinds get bigger, properly timed bluffs meant to steal the blinds and antes are necessary to help you stay alive. This is where the relationship between the size of the pot and the sizes of the stacks becomes more important. Most players will require a stronger hand to call a raise than they would need to make the move themselves. In the middle part of a tournament most players are looking to protect their stack and get into the money. So should you. Plan your bluff wisely and avoid confrontations unless you have an extremely strong hand. Preferably the nuts. NEVER bluff against a bad player. They're likely to call with anything.

Late in the tournament is when you are most likely to run into "coin-flip" situations. As the blinds accelerate, the lower stacks will be pushed to the point that they absolutely have to make a move, regardless of how good/poor their hand is. When some players lose in this situation they often rail against what they see as a "donkey" play. That's not always the case. Anything less than 10-15 blinds is the area when you begin to find yourself with no alternative but to force the action. At this point, you still have enough of a stack to give your opponent some fold equity in the face of your push all in. If you let yourself get too short, you won't have enough of a stack to make it dangerous for the others to call and will often find yourself in a multi-way pot for your tournament life.

There's no doubt that there is a massive amount of money that can be made in the major poker tournaments. After all, someone's gotta win. Just keep in mind that no one (professionals included) has ever won a major tournament without getting lucky at least a few times.

Don't Make This Mistake

I did it again. I over-played my hand and it cost me. All because I was sitting on round after round of mediocre and bad cards. Here's the situation:

After better than 30 min of post/fold in a live event, I get K9os in the BB. UTG limps, the button calls, and I check. Flops brings K63 rainbow. I'm first to act with top pair, but a lousy kicker. I decide to bet 2/3 pot in hopes of taking it down right there. Both players just smooth call.

The turn brings a blank and I bet out about 1/2 pot, reasoning that these players have something like mid pkt pair or A6, A3. After all, there was no raise pre-flop and no raise of my bet on the flop. Again, both players just call.

The river brings an A. I check, UTG bets about 1/4 pot, the button calls. I think for a minute, but can't resist making the call with 2nd pair. I'm getting good odds on my money, and the way the hand has played out it's hard to put either opponent on an A. If either had had a hand like A6 or A3 and made 2 pair on the river, they'd be betting more than just 1/4 pot.

Well, UTG rolls over AK for 2 pair, A's and K's. (!)

The button shows A-rag for a pair of A's. (?)

Leaving aside the donkey that called every bet to the river with nothing but a naked A (no pair, no draws), I made my biggest mistake in continuing to bet on the turn after making a big bet on the flop and being called by 2 players. I should've given at least one of them credit for a hand. Not necessarily AK, but a hand like pkt 6's or 3's would have been reasonable in this situation, given the way the hand played out.

I ended up losing nearly 1/2 of my stack on this one hand. I managed to make a comeback later and finished 12th, but I never really recovered from the earlier loss. Those extra chips would've made a huge difference in the amount I could have won in the later hands, possibly allowing me to make the final table.

Don't let yourself get pressured into over-playing any hand because of frustration with perceived inactivity. While it's true that my play of this hand would have won me the pot if neither of these players held premium cards, their calls should have been a BIG red flag.

Heads Up!!!

Every year the National Heads-Up Poker Championship is one of TV's highest rated poker shows, and in the past has been reserved for the poker elite on an invitation-only basis.

This year, PokerStars has your invitation!

If you think you have what it takes, you could get the chance to face off against the worlds greatest players, including PokerStars Pros Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein, Joe Hachem, Vanessa Rousso, and Greg Raymer.

PokerStars is holding twice-daily freerolls beginning January 22nd to February 22nd:

Round 1A tournaments are held at 7pm Eastern time.
Round 1B tournaments are held at 10pm Eastern time.

These aren't your usual freerolls. You can't go crashing through, bust out, and re-enter the next day. You are allowed a maximum of 2 shots. That's all.

Every new and existing PokerStars player will be allowed to enter one Round 1A and one Round 1B qualifier.

Win your way through the qualifying stages, and this is what you'll receive:

* $20,000 buy-in to the exclusive National Heads-Up Championship
* 4 nights accomodation in Las Vegas (Feb 28th -- March 2nd)
* $1000 cash for travel expenses

These freerolls are open to US players only, so give it a shot. If you have what it takes, you could be playing heads-up for $1.5M!

WILL YOU BE THE NEXT CHAMPION?