Tournament Holdem: Headed for Disappointment?

With the popularity of the World Series of Poker(tm) and the World Poker Tour(tm), many people are entering these competitions looking forward to a big score. Most are doomed to a disappointing finish out of the money regardless of their talent and skills. There are a great many famous poker pros who are sent to the rail on the first day of these tournaments.

Luck has a much greater impact in a large tournament than in a typical cash game. It's simply a function of odds and percentages. The more people contending for the prize pool, the longer the odds for each participant. For the professionals, they are usually vastly out-numbered by amateurs who are notorious for their lower skill level and resulting unpredictable play. This often results in their being busted by amateur players calling with hands that a pro would lay down and sucking out. Any serious player will tell you that the real poker doesn't get played until you're near the bubble. Until then, it's a minefield.

This is not to say you should avoid multi-table tournaments. Just don't fall into the trap of accepting the fallacy that it's all skill and little luck. If you're going to win any No-Limit tournament, you will have to win more than your share of races and coin-flips.

In terms of strategy, tournaments are very different from cash games. Bluffs (especially early) are of limited value because of the size of the pot in relation to the stack sizes. Many amateur players try to bluff way too much early in a tournament because of a mis-application of pot odds. When it comes to making a bluff, pot odds are (or should be) largely irrelevant. Instead, you should be looking at the risk/reward ratio.

It's like this: If you are making a pot-sized bet on a bluff, how much will it increase your stack by if you win? How much will your stack be reduced if you lose? If your stack size is 5,000 and you bet 1000 at a 1000 pot, the numbers aren't in your favor. The potential gain is only 16.6% (5000 to 6000) while the potential loss is 20% (5000 to 4000).

For this reason you should generally try to avoid bluffing too much early on in a tournament. It usually isn't worth the risk. If someone goes all-in preflop and you have A's, by all means, call. That's altogether different than going all in on a bluff. Early in a tournament you want to identify a weaker player and get him to pay you off.

Later in the tournament, you will need to change things up a bit. As the blinds get bigger, properly timed bluffs meant to steal the blinds and antes are necessary to help you stay alive. This is where the relationship between the size of the pot and the sizes of the stacks becomes more important. Most players will require a stronger hand to call a raise than they would need to make the move themselves. In the middle part of a tournament most players are looking to protect their stack and get into the money. So should you. Plan your bluff wisely and avoid confrontations unless you have an extremely strong hand. Preferably the nuts. NEVER bluff against a bad player. They're likely to call with anything.

Late in the tournament is when you are most likely to run into "coin-flip" situations. As the blinds accelerate, the lower stacks will be pushed to the point that they absolutely have to make a move, regardless of how good/poor their hand is. When some players lose in this situation they often rail against what they see as a "donkey" play. That's not always the case. Anything less than 10-15 blinds is the area when you begin to find yourself with no alternative but to force the action. At this point, you still have enough of a stack to give your opponent some fold equity in the face of your push all in. If you let yourself get too short, you won't have enough of a stack to make it dangerous for the others to call and will often find yourself in a multi-way pot for your tournament life.

There's no doubt that there is a massive amount of money that can be made in the major poker tournaments. After all, someone's gotta win. Just keep in mind that no one (professionals included) has ever won a major tournament without getting lucky at least a few times.